---
title: "Session 14 — Survey association and rival stories"
author: "Prof. Dae-Jin Lee (daelee@faculty.ie.edu)"
date: "Fall 2026"
output:
  html_document:
    toc: true
    theme: flatly
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE, message = FALSE, warning = FALSE)
library(tidyverse)
```

```{r}
survey <- read_csv("data/survey_attitudes.csv")

cor(
  survey$support_international_cooperation,
  survey$perceived_security_threat,
  use = "complete.obs"
)

ggplot(survey, aes(x = perceived_security_threat,
                   y = support_international_cooperation)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.35) +
  geom_smooth(method = "lm", se = FALSE) +
  labs(
    title = "Association in survey attitudes",
    x = "Perceived security threat",
    y = "Support for international cooperation"
  )
```

**Write three rival stories:** confounder (e.g., ideology), reverse causality, selection into survey response. Causal language waits for a design.